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Step 4 of the Air bleeding method for the timing belt from the factory service manual reads:
4.While the rod is projected at the point "B" shown in the illustration (.45"), push the rod with 100 - 200 N (22 - 44 pound). Check the enough stiffness. If the stiffness is not enough, replace the auto tensioner.
This video says if the plunger moves slightly when 22 - 44lbs force is applied it needs to be replaced:
So how I interperate all this is that at a plunger height of .45", the plunger should be exerting greater than 44lbs of force.
For future searchers, there's basically no way to check this. To measure the plunger height at different pressures I first tried this set up:
and found the force exherted by the plunger depended a lot on how fast you compressed it, then would slowly leak down. So I tried applying a constant force with this set up:
11lbs of water in each bucket. Hard to see, but the tensioner is on top of the brick, to give me room to measure the plunger extension. Even with only 22 lbs pressure on a brand new tensioner, it will sink down over 10 minutes to under the .45" called out.
So, I just said the hell with it, bleed it several times and installed it. It is what it is. Wish me luck.